Nigeria
is once more on the march. From failed hopes of achieving
'Housing for all by the year 2000', 'Electricity for
all by the year 2000' and Vision 2010, the country has
now set a target of 2020 as the year she will join the
league of 20 global leading economies.
Those who follow developments in the country take the
presumed government commitment to this new project with
a pinch of salt having witnessed the failure of all
the previous efforts at building an economically buoyant
nation.
Yet, as government marches on with its determination
of becoming a member of the prestigious Club 20 come
2020, IT experts in the country are in agreement that
the project will end up an illusion unless the relevance
of IT in its overall actualization is given prominence
as is the case in countries like China, India etc.
ROMMY IMAH reports…..
Even as Nigeria's Minister of
State for Finance, Remi Babalola is unshakeably convinced
that Nigeria would eventually be in the league of the world's
20 leading economies by year 2020, cynics and diehard skeptics
of the Nigerian dream insist that all the hullabaloo about
the country attaining this feat will certainly come to naught
unless there is a more pragmatic and realistic approach to
national development by the leaders.
Babalola had told a national daily recently that nothing
is impossible under the sun especially going by the formula
already adopted by some of the world's leading economies in
getting to where they are today. According to him, “There
is formula for success; we have seen it in China, India, Korea,
and Singapore and to a lesser extent in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Nigerian possibilities and potentials give me fillip to see
Nigeria as a member of G20 in 12 years. Be upbeat.”
In what looked
like a corroboration of the minister's confidence, President Umaru
Musa Yar'Adua had in his Independence Day Address observed, “Our
Administration came into office, resolved to frontally face up to
Nigeria's development challenges, and set the nation on an assured
path to becoming a properly grounded stable democracy and one of
the world's twenty largest economies by the year 2020.
Our Seven-point Agenda is aimed at a structured approach to tackling
the challenges which we must overcome if we are to sustainably raise
the living standards of Nigerians, achieve the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) andrealize our Vision 20:2020.”
Skeptics argue that though Nigeria and China share a lot of things
in common (chief of which is population), likening the country to
China would be another way of building hope in hopelessness. They
argue that going by the country's visionless style that has hampered
national development since independence some 48 years ago, it would
be easier for a blind Camel to pass through the eye of the needle
than for Nigeria to become one of the 20 leading economies of the
world come 2020.
For instance, celebrated
writer and ideologue, Chinweizu wondered whether the designers
and promoters of the project and by implication, the Nigerian
Government understood the meaning of the over-celebrated Vision.
“In any case, this ambition cannot be taken seriously
because, Yar'Adua and his team do not even know what they
are aspiring to join.
They think the G-20 is simply the group of the
largest economies in the world. However, a crucial little
fact has escaped their inattention: that except for Saudi
Arabia, which, being unindustrialized, is only a courtesy
member, the G-20 members are all seriously industrialized
economies, each with a substantial manufacturing sector”,
he noted.
The G-20 is in fact, a group made up of the
largest
industrialized
economies of the world; only Saudi Arabia is an exception in this
group.
This is because, given the size of its oil reserves
and its dominant influence in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia's cooperation with the G-20 is considered
very vital for guaranteeing the cheap oil that the industrialized
countries need. Even Iran with a GDP nearly 50% larger than that
of Saudi Arabia's, it could not be guaranteed a place in G-20 because
of its lack of oil clout.
Those who welcome the ambitious G-20 membership have often argued
that for Nigeria to become a member of the 20 leading economies
of the world, there was need for the country to massively industrialize.
They contend that even as the country claims a focus on meeting
with the UN-set Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), efforts at
actualizing this could be retarded by lack of industrialization.
But this Chinweizu went further to buttress by saying that besides
being totally unindustrialized, Nigeria is disqualified from joining
the G-20 by the peculiar looting system of bureaucratic anarchy
and political gangsterism that passes for government in Nigeria.
“Every country in the G-20 has an orderly, disciplined and
genuine government, something Nigeria has not had in 50 years.
“Nigeria has
earned close to $1trillion from oil in the last 50 years yet
has nothing to show for it except filth, squalor and disorder,
and the massive poverty of the citizens. Such criminal misgovernment
is uncharacteristic of the G-20 members.
Nigeria is thus further disqualified by the criminal anarchism
of its government. Seen in this light, this G-20 ambition
is like a raving lunatic trying to join a gathering of the
sane and sober.”
It is not the first time that Nigeria would be coming up
with very ambitious programmes that ended up in futility.
In the 90s, there were such slogans like 'Housing for all
by the year 2000'; 'Education for all by the year 2000'; 'Electricity
for all by the year 2000' etc. Those slogans were like the
proverbial bark without bite. None of them has been actualized
till date.
This explains the reason why so many people are not taking
the Vision 20:2020 project serious.
China, India and Korea, the countries Nigeria is
'borrowing'
their development formula spent about 60 years building their respective
countries to get to the level they are today.
And that is why skeptics of the Nigerian dream
still do not want to believe that a process that took the likes
of China, India and Korea 60 years of unquantifiable commitment,
dedication, passion and patriotism will take Nigeria 12 to 13 years
to accomplish.
Chinweizu who belongs to this school of thought went
down memory lane recollecting how China laid the foundation of its
success some decades of years ago. According to him, “China
laid the foundations for what it has become today in the three decades
(1949-1980) after the Maoists had fought and won a 30-year civil
war (1919-1949) that gave them total political control of Mainland
China. What did the Maoists achieve in the area of basic industries--which
constitute the foundation for Industrialization?
“These basic industries are: (1) the power industry,
(2) the metallurgical industry, (3) the machine tools industry,
(4) the machine building industry, and (5) the chemicals and petrochemicals
industry.”
On the area of power for instance, he noted
that by the end of 1980, China had built 3,329 power plants each
with a generating capacity of 500kw and more including small power
stations below the 500kw class that numbered tens of thousands.
On the development
of the Metallurgical Industry, notwithstanding that when it
started in 1949 with capacity for less than 1million tons
of steel, and with virtually no smelting and processing factories
for copper, tin, mercury and other mineral ores, the metallurgical
industry in China had developed into a modern comprehensive
system by 1980.
According to Chinweizu, “By 1980,
China ranked 5th in the world in steel output with 37.12 million
tons from a dozen large iron and steel complexes, a dozen
special steel plants, dozens of medium-sized iron and steel
works and a hundred small ones.
Nearly 100 large and medium-sized non-ferrous
metals enterprises produced copper, aluminum, lead, tin, antimony,
mercury, nickel and other metals.”
By 1980,
the machine building plants in China covered nearly 100 trades such
as machine tools, power generating equipment, transformers, metallurgical
equipment, general machinery, motor vehicles, bearings, measuring
and cutting tools, meters and instruments. They were able to manufacture
26,000 kinds of machinery and electrical appliances.
The country's machine building industry as at
1980 was able to supply complete sets of equipment for industry,
transport and communications, agriculture, national defence and
scientific research. Between 1959 and 1980 it had provided machinery
and equipment for more than 3,000 large and medium-sized construction
projects, including complete iron and steel complexes. But here
was a country that in 1949, when it started, had only 95,000 machine
tools out of which 41,000 belonged to machine-building plants.
Such is the character of a country that truly
wants to aspire.Today, if there is anything
that has become Nigeria's greatest impediment to meaningful development,
it is poor power supply.
It is believed that over 80% of the country's communities
still experience constant power failure in this 21st century when
reliable electric power supply continues to be one of the most essential
factors in running a successful economy all over the world.
It has become clear that Nigeria as a nation will
forever struggle at the same very low standard, economically and
socially if something serious is not done to correct this deficiency.
Only reliable electric power supply will revive the country's economy
and upgrade the living standard of the citizenry.
Vision
20:2020 is a grand agenda, which the federal government has
adopted as the main thrust of what it is out to accomplish
between 2007 and the year 2020. It is a 13-year plan of dramatic
socio-economic transformation of the country.
The goal of the vision is to transform the Nigerian economy
to be in the league of the 20 most industrialized countries
of the world.
It is an incontestable fact that Nigeria's economic potential
is well recognized not only in sub-regional
West Africa
but the whole of the African continent. It remains the biggest economy
in the West African sub-region. And given the country's considerable
resource endowment and coastal location, there is potential for
strong growth.
Yet Nigeria has realized very little of this
potential. Previous efforts at planning and visioning were not sustained.
The much-touted Vision 2010 has been in a state of suspended animation
for as long as one can remember. The history of economic stagnation,
declining welfare and social instability, has undermined development
for most of the past 30 years.
In a convocation lecture he delivered recently at
the Kogi State University, Ayingba, Professor Akin Oyebode of the
University of Lagos succinctly captured what looks like the country's
endless pursuit of shadows. According to him, “Nigeria is
today at a crossroads.
After numerous false starts and inability to actualize
the much-touted potentials of our great country, it seems we are
once again set on a journey to nowhere, bereft of well-thought out
fundamentals of Nigeria's political economy. “The goal this
time around is touted as leapfrogging the country from the nadir
of hopelessness and underdevelopment to the rarified
group of the most developed economies of the world,
all within a spate of 12 years. Of course, there is nothing wrong
in dreaming big, but there is everything wrong in seeking pies in
the sky or a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.”
However,
the Federal Government, promoters of this new project believes
that in recent years, the country has been experiencing a
growth turnaround and that current situation of things seem
right for launching the country unto a path of sustained and
rapid growth.
This confidence is coming on the heels of a
study conducted by Goldman Sachs, which said that by 2025,
based on their parameters for growth and development, the
20 largest economies in the world would most likely include
Nigeria and the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and
China.
These are the countries identified by Goldman
Sachs to have the potential for attaining global competitiveness
based on their economic and demographic settings and the foundation
for reforms already laid.
This forecast
seems to be in line with the mission of a group of Nigerians under
the aegis of Gemstone Generation drawn mostly from the private sector
that has vowed to make Nigeria the most desirable country to live
in come 2025.
However, the group believes it can only achieve this
by ensuring that Nigerian professionals living abroad return home
and help in nation building.
About 17million Nigerian immigrants are said to be
legally residing outside the shores of the country.Of this number,
about 2million live in the U.S.A. alone, out of which 15,000 are
medical personnel and 150,000 are said to be IT professionals. India
is a classical example of a country that has benefited a great deal
from her professionals living in the Americas. Records have shown
that over 20,000 Indian professionals returned to the country from
abroad; out of this number, about 90% of them are IT professionals.
For instance, it was reported that more than 700 of
the 2400 staff at the General Electric's research and development
centre in India are young Indian professionals who left U.S.A. for
their home. Yet, about 160 big companies from Europe and U.S.A.
have set up research, design & development centres in India.
The key goal for Vision 20:2020 is to ensure that
by the year 2020, Nigeria will be one of the 20 largest economies
in the world able to consolidate its leadership role in Africa and
establish itself as a significant player in the global economic
and political arena.
In
what could perhaps pass as the country's show of sincerity
in pursuing the actualization of Vision 20:2020, the National
Council on Vision 2020 (NCV2020) which serves as the apex
of the operational and institutional arrangement for Nigeria's
V2020 was set up by the government. The Council is chaired
by the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and it
is to provide leadership and direction to galvanize the nation.
The Terms of Reference for the NCV2020 include
providing leadership and direction to galvanize the NV2020
process; approving the core national priorities to guide the
bottom-up visioning process; ensuring the quality of the V2020
plan document, appropriateness of targets and practicality
of strategies; as well as to review progress of work
and give further
direction to ensure the attainment of the vision. Others are to
ensure that all stakeholders are actively involved in the visioning
process; to approve a framework for mobilizing resources from private
sector and other stakeholders for the development of Nigeria's Vision
2020 plan; to approve a comprehensive planning framework that will
enable the annual budgets and medium term harmonized development
plans to be in accordance with the aspiration of NV2020; and to
issue any other directives that the Council may consider desirable
to bring about the accomplishment of its tasks.
Also established to ensure the success of this project, is the
National Steering Committee (NSC) on Vision 20:2020, which is the
engine room of the visioning process. The committee is headed by
the
Honourable Minister/Deputy Chairman of the National Planning Commission
and it consists of 70 members. The Terms of Reference of the NSC
include: To develop methodology and guidelines for all MDAs, private
sector and other stakeholders to facilitate a systematic bottom-up
development of Vision 2020; to propose a comprehensive plan for
the country that will enable it to achieve the goal of becoming
one of the top 20 economies by 2020; and to propose appropriate
goals, targets and strategies for achieving the socio-economic objectives.
Furthermore, the Committee is to identify and recommend overall
national goals and priorities for the approval of the National Council;
guide and assist all States of the Federation and MDAs to develop
their own components of V2020 in accordance with the guidelines
and national priorities approved by the NV2020; to arrange nation-wide
dissemination of programmes to pave way for widest buy-in by all
stakeholders and to develop a template for the preparation of a
result oriented communication strategy that will mobilize stakeholders
to action and also to monitor annual progress at the national, including
MDAs and state levels among others.
However, Nigerian
IT professionals are worried that in spite of the very obvious
relevance of information and communications technology in
the overall actualization of Vision 20:2020, the Nigerian
government seems not to be taking this into consideration.
And this is why no one can blame the generality of the Nigerian
population for refusing to be taken in by yet another case
of déjà vu if the place of IT in realizing this
project is not taken into consideration especially now that
the global slogan is Knowledge economy. From $50million in
2001, Nigeria has today earned over $12billion in Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) with
telecommunication
alone accounting for over 80% of this earning. Developments in the
IT sector have shown that FDI in this sector will continue to rise
as long as the country remains Africa's largest IT market.
President of the Computer Professionals Registration
Council of Nigeria (CPN), Dr. Adenikan Osofisan once warned that
Information Technology is a critical sector that needs to be fully
explored for the realization of Vision 20:2020 objective.
“We have a substantial contribution to
make and this contribution is to grow this profession maximally,
so it can impact positively on the economy, thereby facilitating
the realization of the vision.” Unfortunately, government
appears to be paying deaf ears to this. In the key indicative parametres
listed for development
towards the actualization of the Vision 20:2020 project,
for instance, government was silent in the area of IT.
This has therefore, raised concerns among stakeholders
in the IT sector of the economy about government's genuine intention
or otherwise in actualizing the dream of becoming one of the 20
leading economies in the world by 2020.
Government had listed areas like policy formulation,
macro economy, infrastructure, education, health,
agriculture and manufacturing as important indicators for focus
and development. The conspicuous omission of IT in the list has
continued to confound Nigerian IT experts.
Yet, even the World Bank believes Nigeria's quest
to becoming a member of the global 20 leading economies in 2020
can only become a reality if a solid ICT platform is built especially
putting into consideration that Nigeria has already become a regional
powerhouse in all areas that can drive ICT.
Country Director
of the World Bank, Onno Ruhl said at a recent workshop on
the Nigerian eGovernment Interoperability Framework that Nigeria
has strong drivers to back the ICT industry. “We shouldn't
spend time on protocol; we should spend time on exploring
the opportunities of ICT in Nigeria. I am here for a very
specific reason; the World Bank's mission in Nigeria is to
support the government on the 7 point agenda and the realization
of Vision 20:2020”, he noted.
Ruhl, who pointed out that 35% of productivity
growth in the European
Union comes
from ICT and 25% of GDP growth is achieved through ICT, underlined
the importance of ICT in the development of Nigeria. “Now,
Vision 20:2020 is an extremely ambitious vision that requires a
tremendous level of growth to realize and if you look at other countries
and where they are coming from, it immediately becomes clear that
ICT must be a very important part of realizing this vision for Nigeria”,
he said.
The National ICT4D plan is targeted at using ICT to
achieve the government's Seven Point Agenda and Vision 20:2020,
thereby deploying ICT to achieve Nigeria's Millennial Development
Goals, NEPAD development initiatives and the World Summit on Information
Society's (WSIS) plan of action.
The plan contains
actionable programs for short, medium and long-term implementation
by identified stakeholders in conjunction with local and/or
international private organizations.
But how far this has contributed in facilitating
the actualization of Vision 20:2020 is yet to be seen Experts
have contended that the explosion in technology which ushered
in the information age has become the basis for
defining
power in the modern world. For this reason, it has been argued further
that no modern economy can thrive without an integral information
technology and telecommunications infrastructure.
This argument is hinged on the premise that ICTs provide
the veritable platform for development across economies. Malaysian
based Global Knowledge Partnership recently reviewed the question
of whether the ICTs are a fast track to making poverty history or
are they increasing existing inequalities leading to exclusion of
entire peoples and populations from the new information society
being built?
Leading experts examined the potential and actual
role of ICTs in meeting major development challenges such as fighting
poverty, promoting gender equality, fostering participation in political
processes, increasing transparency and aid effectiveness. They however,
concluded that ICTs can be a unique and powerful platform for promoting
sustainable human development.
For Engineer Ernest
Ndukwe, Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications
Commission (NCC), “there is no doubt that without ICTs,
a nation or person cannot reach her full potential in today's
global economy.
No modern economy can be sustained today without an adequate
and pervasive ICT infrastructure. The impact of ICT in development
covers various aspects of a nation's socio-economic life.”
Ndukwe insists that ICT is driving the new global economy
where people, businesses and communities with ready access
to information technologies are better equipped to participate
actively in the global economy. He adds that international
investors demand efficient and reliable access to ICTs as
basis for
investing
in any country. Nigeria's IT oracle and avowed advocate of local
content growth, Chris Uwaje contends that the character of a nation
is determined by the architecture (in form and content) of her information
structure and systems coordinates arguing strongly that building
core technology and skilled capacities of Intellectual Capital is
strategically imperative if Nigeria must compete globally.
According to him, “Information Technology has
unarguably become the answer to resolving the colossal conflict
of poverty in our nation.
And no amount of foreign aids and so-called transfer
of technology are capable of delivering a functional and sustainable
solution. Technology is the process of ensuring that development
is properly organized, executed and sustained through motivated
creativity and innovation.”
Uwaje suggested that constructive IT deployment and
diffusion is the panacea to a significant reduction in the various
levels of poverty in the country while insisting that the origin
of the overt poverty enveloping the country today and prevalent
in her citizens' everyday life activity, is directly rooted in the
“Thinking Poverty” of governance and leadership and
indeed of followership within the context of technology vision,
processes and implementation standards.
“Thinking poverty
and related chains of techno-phobia induced poverty are predominantly
responsible for all the other layers of secondary poverty
levels, which multiply exponentially with deep rooted consequences
for nation building and competitiveness.
Also, it has contributed in no small measure
in alienating the dynamics of merit-structured development,
eroded our innate potentials for innovative risks.
The resultant
effect is that it has helped to build the frustration chambers and
the prison for reducing creative generations”, Uwaje noted.
The software expert maintains that Nigeria needs to
rethink and restructure her future, within the context of Information
Technology and Globalization else she may become one of the pathetic
victims of the 21st century Digital colonies or Digital Slaves discovered
by IT and later visited by digital disaster.
Uwaje warned thus: “To exclude Digital Disaster
as an essential parameter for national planning and indeed as one
of the inevitable major national catastrophes of the global IT evolution
cycle is indeed a great fallacy. It will happen. Question is, who
will be hurt, what will be the volume and value of damages and how
long will it take to actualize Disaster Recovery?”
President of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications
Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Engr. Gbenga Adebayo believes nothing
can be achieved unless the country's economy is driven to a large
extent by ICT.
He notes that there is no alternative tothis as ICT
plays a major role on the progress of any economy.
“You can't
talk about Vision 20:2020 without infrastructure. When you talk
about infrastructure, we talk about electricity, oil and gas,
good road
network, transportation by
road, air and sea, security among others. When you talk about
infrastructure, you talk about even the port of entry and
exit of goods from this country.
“Energy today plays a key role in development,
and one of the challenges we have in Nigeria is the energy
supply. If we can solve this problem by 35%, Nigeria will
be productive.
It will lead to rapid transformation on our industries. We cannot
talk about industrialization without talking about infrastructure.”
Adebayo argues that the world today is a virtual village
on account of the strength of ICT as this provides the vehicle for
running commerce. He contends that all the talk about building a
knowledge based economy.