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  S p o t   L i g h t

Vision 20: 2020 Why IT Experts Are Worried

Nigeria is once more on the march. From failed hopes of achieving 'Housing for all by the year 2000', 'Electricity for all by the year 2000' and Vision 2010, the country has now set a target of 2020 as the year she will join the league of 20 global leading economies.
Those who follow developments in the country take the presumed government commitment to this new project with a pinch of salt having witnessed the failure of all the previous efforts at building an economically buoyant nation.
Yet, as government marches on with its determination of becoming a member of the prestigious Club 20 come 2020, IT experts in the country are in agreement that the project will end up an illusion unless the relevance of IT in its overall actualization is given prominence as is the case in countries like China, India etc.
ROMMY IMAH reports…..


Even as Nigeria's Minister of State for Finance, Remi Babalola is unshakeably convinced that Nigeria would eventually be in the league of the world's 20 leading economies by year 2020, cynics and diehard skeptics of the Nigerian dream insist that all the hullabaloo about the country attaining this feat will certainly come to naught unless there is a more pragmatic and realistic approach to national development by the leaders.

Babalola had told a national daily recently that nothing is impossible under the sun especially going by the formula already adopted by some of the world's leading economies in getting to where they are today. According to him, “There is formula for success; we have seen it in China, India, Korea, and Singapore and to a lesser extent in Malaysia and Indonesia. Nigerian possibilities and potentials give me fillip to see Nigeria as a member of G20 in 12 years. Be upbeat.”

In what looked like a corroboration of the minister's confidence, President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua had in his Independence Day Address observed, “Our Administration came into office, resolved to frontally face up to Nigeria's development challenges, and set the nation on an assured path to becoming a properly grounded stable democracy and one of the world's twenty largest economies by the year 2020.

Our Seven-point Agenda is aimed at a structured approach to tackling the challenges which we must overcome if we are to sustainably raise the living standards of Nigerians, achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) andrealize our Vision 20:2020.”

Skeptics argue that though Nigeria and China share a lot of things in common (chief of which is population), likening the country to China would be another way of building hope in hopelessness. They argue that going by the country's visionless style that has hampered national development since independence some 48 years ago, it would be easier for a blind Camel to pass through the eye of the needle than for Nigeria to become one of the 20 leading economies of the world come 2020.

 

For instance, celebrated writer and ideologue, Chinweizu wondered whether the designers and promoters of the project and by implication, the Nigerian Government understood the meaning of the over-celebrated Vision. “In any case, this ambition cannot be taken seriously because, Yar'Adua and his team do not even know what they are aspiring to join.

They think the G-20 is simply the group of the largest economies in the world. However, a crucial little fact has escaped their inattention: that except for Saudi Arabia, which, being unindustrialized, is only a courtesy member, the G-20 members are all seriously industrialized economies, each with a substantial manufacturing sector”, he noted.

The G-20 is in fact, a group made up of the largest

industrialized economies of the world; only Saudi Arabia is an exception in this group.

This is because, given the size of its oil reserves and its dominant influence in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia's cooperation with the G-20 is considered very vital for guaranteeing the cheap oil that the industrialized countries need. Even Iran with a GDP nearly 50% larger than that of Saudi Arabia's, it could not be guaranteed a place in G-20 because of its lack of oil clout.

Those who welcome the ambitious G-20 membership have often argued that for Nigeria to become a member of the 20 leading economies of the world, there was need for the country to massively industrialize. They contend that even as the country claims a focus on meeting with the UN-set Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), efforts at actualizing this could be retarded by lack of industrialization.

But this Chinweizu went further to buttress by saying that besides being totally unindustrialized, Nigeria is disqualified from joining the G-20 by the peculiar looting system of bureaucratic anarchy and political gangsterism that passes for government in Nigeria. “Every country in the G-20 has an orderly, disciplined and genuine government, something Nigeria has not had in 50 years.

 

“Nigeria has earned close to $1trillion from oil in the last 50 years yet has nothing to show for it except filth, squalor and disorder, and the massive poverty of the citizens. Such criminal misgovernment is uncharacteristic of the G-20 members.

Nigeria is thus further disqualified by the criminal anarchism of its government. Seen in this light, this G-20 ambition is like a raving lunatic trying to join a gathering of the sane and sober.”

It is not the first time that Nigeria would be coming up with very ambitious programmes that ended up in futility. In the 90s, there were such slogans like 'Housing for all by the year 2000'; 'Education for all by the year 2000'; 'Electricity for all by the year 2000' etc. Those slogans were like the proverbial bark without bite. None of them has been actualized till date.

This explains the reason why so many people are not taking the Vision 20:2020 project serious.
China, India and Korea, the countries Nigeria is

'borrowing' their development formula spent about 60 years building their respective countries to get to the level they are today.

And that is why skeptics of the Nigerian dream still do not want to believe that a process that took the likes of China, India and Korea 60 years of unquantifiable commitment, dedication, passion and patriotism will take Nigeria 12 to 13 years to accomplish.

Chinweizu who belongs to this school of thought went down memory lane recollecting how China laid the foundation of its success some decades of years ago. According to him, “China laid the foundations for what it has become today in the three decades (1949-1980) after the Maoists had fought and won a 30-year civil war (1919-1949) that gave them total political control of Mainland China. What did the Maoists achieve in the area of basic industries--which constitute the foundation for Industrialization?

“These basic industries are: (1) the power industry, (2) the metallurgical industry, (3) the machine tools industry, (4) the machine building industry, and (5) the chemicals and petrochemicals industry.”

On the area of power for instance, he noted that by the end of 1980, China had built 3,329 power plants each with a generating capacity of 500kw and more including small power stations below the 500kw class that numbered tens of thousands.

 

On the development of the Metallurgical Industry, notwithstanding that when it started in 1949 with capacity for less than 1million tons of steel, and with virtually no smelting and processing factories for copper, tin, mercury and other mineral ores, the metallurgical industry in China had developed into a modern comprehensive system by 1980.

According to Chinweizu, “By 1980, China ranked 5th in the world in steel output with 37.12 million tons from a dozen large iron and steel complexes, a dozen special steel plants, dozens of medium-sized iron and steel works and a hundred small ones.

Nearly 100 large and medium-sized non-ferrous metals enterprises produced copper, aluminum, lead, tin, antimony, mercury, nickel and other metals.”

By 1980, the machine building plants in China covered nearly 100 trades such as machine tools, power generating equipment, transformers, metallurgical equipment, general machinery, motor vehicles, bearings, measuring and cutting tools, meters and instruments. They were able to manufacture 26,000 kinds of machinery and electrical appliances.

The country's machine building industry as at 1980 was able to supply complete sets of equipment for industry, transport and communications, agriculture, national defence and scientific research. Between 1959 and 1980 it had provided machinery and equipment for more than 3,000 large and medium-sized construction projects, including complete iron and steel complexes. But here was a country that in 1949, when it started, had only 95,000 machine tools out of which 41,000 belonged to machine-building plants.

Such is the character of a country that truly wants to aspire. Today, if there is anything that has become Nigeria's greatest impediment to meaningful development, it is poor power supply.

It is believed that over 80% of the country's communities still experience constant power failure in this 21st century when reliable electric power supply continues to be one of the most essential factors in running a successful economy all over the world.

It has become clear that Nigeria as a nation will forever struggle at the same very low standard, economically and socially if something serious is not done to correct this deficiency. Only reliable electric power supply will revive the country's economy and upgrade the living standard of the citizenry.

Vision 20:2020 is a grand agenda, which the federal government has adopted as the main thrust of what it is out to accomplish between 2007 and the year 2020. It is a 13-year plan of dramatic socio-economic transformation of the country.

The goal of the vision is to transform the Nigerian economy to be in the league of the 20 most industrialized countries of the world.

It is an incontestable fact that Nigeria's economic potential is well recognized not only in sub-regional

 

West Africa but the whole of the African continent. It remains the biggest economy in the West African sub-region. And given the country's considerable resource endowment and coastal location, there is potential for strong growth.

Yet Nigeria has realized very little of this potential. Previous efforts at planning and visioning were not sustained. The much-touted Vision 2010 has been in a state of suspended animation for as long as one can remember. The history of economic stagnation, declining welfare and social instability, has undermined development for most of the past 30 years.

In a convocation lecture he delivered recently at the Kogi State University, Ayingba, Professor Akin Oyebode of the University of Lagos succinctly captured what looks like the country's endless pursuit of shadows. According to him, “Nigeria is today at a crossroads.

After numerous false starts and inability to actualize the much-touted potentials of our great country, it seems we are once again set on a journey to nowhere, bereft of well-thought out fundamentals of Nigeria's political economy. “The goal this time around is touted as leapfrogging the country from the nadir of hopelessness and underdevelopment to the rarified

group of the most developed economies of the world, all within a spate of 12 years. Of course, there is nothing wrong in dreaming big, but there is everything wrong in seeking pies in the sky or a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.”

 

However, the Federal Government, promoters of this new project believes that in recent years, the country has been experiencing a growth turnaround and that current situation of things seem right for launching the country unto a path of sustained and rapid growth.

This confidence is coming on the heels of a study conducted by Goldman Sachs, which said that by 2025, based on their parameters for growth and development, the 20 largest economies in the world would most likely include Nigeria and the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

These are the countries identified by Goldman Sachs to have the potential for attaining global competitiveness based on their economic and demographic settings and the foundation for reforms already laid.

This forecast seems to be in line with the mission of a group of Nigerians under the aegis of Gemstone Generation drawn mostly from the private sector that has vowed to make Nigeria the most desirable country to live in come 2025.

However, the group believes it can only achieve this by ensuring that Nigerian professionals living abroad return home and help in nation building.

About 17million Nigerian immigrants are said to be legally residing outside the shores of the country.Of this number, about 2million live in the U.S.A. alone, out of which 15,000 are medical personnel and 150,000 are said to be IT professionals. India is a classical example of a country that has benefited a great deal from her professionals living in the Americas. Records have shown that over 20,000 Indian professionals returned to the country from abroad; out of this number, about 90% of them are IT professionals.

For instance, it was reported that more than 700 of the 2400 staff at the General Electric's research and development centre in India are young Indian professionals who left U.S.A. for their home. Yet, about 160 big companies from Europe and U.S.A. have set up research, design & development centres in India.

The key goal for Vision 20:2020 is to ensure that by the year 2020, Nigeria will be one of the 20 largest economies in the world able to consolidate its leadership role in Africa and establish itself as a significant player in the global economic and political arena.

In what could perhaps pass as the country's show of sincerity in pursuing the actualization of Vision 20:2020, the National Council on Vision 2020 (NCV2020) which serves as the apex of the operational and institutional arrangement for Nigeria's V2020 was set up by the government. The Council is chaired by the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and it is to provide leadership and direction to galvanize the nation.

The Terms of Reference for the NCV2020 include providing leadership and direction to galvanize the NV2020 process; approving the core national priorities to guide the bottom-up visioning process; ensuring the quality of the V2020 plan document, appropriateness of targets and practicality of strategies; as well as to review progress of work

 

and give further direction to ensure the attainment of the vision. Others are to ensure that all stakeholders are actively involved in the visioning process; to approve a framework for mobilizing resources from private sector and other stakeholders for the development of Nigeria's Vision 2020 plan; to approve a comprehensive planning framework that will enable the annual budgets and medium term harmonized development plans to be in accordance with the aspiration of NV2020; and to issue any other directives that the Council may consider desirable to bring about the accomplishment of its tasks.

Also established to ensure the success of this project, is the National Steering Committee (NSC) on Vision 20:2020, which is the engine room of the visioning process. The committee is headed by the

Honourable Minister/Deputy Chairman of the National Planning Commission and it consists of 70 members. The Terms of Reference of the NSC include: To develop methodology and guidelines for all MDAs, private sector and other stakeholders to facilitate a systematic bottom-up development of Vision 2020; to propose a comprehensive plan for the country that will enable it to achieve the goal of becoming one of the top 20 economies by 2020; and to propose appropriate goals, targets and strategies for achieving the socio-economic objectives.

Furthermore, the Committee is to identify and recommend overall national goals and priorities for the approval of the National Council; guide and assist all States of the Federation and MDAs to develop their own components of V2020 in accordance with the guidelines and national priorities approved by the NV2020; to arrange nation-wide dissemination of programmes to pave way for widest buy-in by all stakeholders and to develop a template for the preparation of a result oriented communication strategy that will mobilize stakeholders to action and also to monitor annual progress at the national, including MDAs and state levels among others.

 

However, Nigerian IT professionals are worried that in spite of the very obvious relevance of information and communications technology in the overall actualization of Vision 20:2020, the Nigerian government seems not to be taking this into consideration.

And this is why no one can blame the generality of the Nigerian population for refusing to be taken in by yet another case of déjà vu if the place of IT in realizing this project is not taken into consideration especially now that the global slogan is Knowledge economy. From $50million in 2001, Nigeria has today earned over $12billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with

telecommunication alone accounting for over 80% of this earning. Developments in the IT sector have shown that FDI in this sector will continue to rise as long as the country remains Africa's largest IT market.

President of the Computer Professionals Registration Council of Nigeria (CPN), Dr. Adenikan Osofisan once warned that Information Technology is a critical sector that needs to be fully explored for the realization of Vision 20:2020 objective.

“We have a substantial contribution to make and this contribution is to grow this profession maximally, so it can impact positively on the economy, thereby facilitating the realization of the vision.” Unfortunately, government appears to be paying deaf ears to this. In the key indicative parametres listed for development

towards the actualization of the Vision 20:2020 project, for instance, government was silent in the area of IT.

This has therefore, raised concerns among stakeholders in the IT sector of the economy about government's genuine intention or otherwise in actualizing the dream of becoming one of the 20 leading economies in the world by 2020.

Government had listed areas like policy formulation, macro economy, infrastructure, education, health, agriculture and manufacturing as important indicators for focus and development. The conspicuous omission of IT in the list has continued to confound Nigerian IT experts.

Yet, even the World Bank believes Nigeria's quest to becoming a member of the global 20 leading economies in 2020 can only become a reality if a solid ICT platform is built especially putting into consideration that Nigeria has already become a regional powerhouse in all areas that can drive ICT.

 

Country Director of the World Bank, Onno Ruhl said at a recent workshop on the Nigerian eGovernment Interoperability Framework that Nigeria has strong drivers to back the ICT industry. “We shouldn't spend time on protocol; we should spend time on exploring the opportunities of ICT in Nigeria. I am here for a very specific reason; the World Bank's mission in Nigeria is to support the government on the 7 point agenda and the realization of Vision 20:2020”, he noted.

Ruhl, who pointed out that 35% of productivity growth in the European

Union comes from ICT and 25% of GDP growth is achieved through ICT, underlined the importance of ICT in the development of Nigeria. “Now, Vision 20:2020 is an extremely ambitious vision that requires a tremendous level of growth to realize and if you look at other countries and where they are coming from, it immediately becomes clear that ICT must be a very important part of realizing this vision for Nigeria”, he said.

The National ICT4D plan is targeted at using ICT to achieve the government's Seven Point Agenda and Vision 20:2020, thereby deploying ICT to achieve Nigeria's Millennial Development Goals, NEPAD development initiatives and the World Summit on Information Society's (WSIS) plan of action.

 

The plan contains actionable programs for short, medium and long-term implementation by identified stakeholders in conjunction with local and/or international private organizations.

But how far this has contributed in facilitating the actualization of Vision 20:2020 is yet to be seen Experts have contended that the explosion in technology which ushered in the information age has become the basis for

defining power in the modern world. For this reason, it has been argued further that no modern economy can thrive without an integral information technology and telecommunications infrastructure.

This argument is hinged on the premise that ICTs provide the veritable platform for development across economies. Malaysian based Global Knowledge Partnership recently reviewed the question of whether the ICTs are a fast track to making poverty history or are they increasing existing inequalities leading to exclusion of entire peoples and populations from the new information society being built?

Leading experts examined the potential and actual role of ICTs in meeting major development challenges such as fighting poverty, promoting gender equality, fostering participation in political processes, increasing transparency and aid effectiveness. They however, concluded that ICTs can be a unique and powerful platform for promoting sustainable human development.

 

For Engineer Ernest Ndukwe, Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), “there is no doubt that without ICTs, a nation or person cannot reach her full potential in today's global economy.

No modern economy can be sustained today without an adequate and pervasive ICT infrastructure. The impact of ICT in development covers various aspects of a nation's socio-economic life.”

Ndukwe insists that ICT is driving the new global economy where people, businesses and communities with ready access to information technologies are better equipped to participate actively in the global economy. He adds that international investors demand efficient and reliable access to ICTs as basis for

investing in any country. Nigeria's IT oracle and avowed advocate of local content growth, Chris Uwaje contends that the character of a nation is determined by the architecture (in form and content) of her information structure and systems coordinates arguing strongly that building core technology and skilled capacities of Intellectual Capital is strategically imperative if Nigeria must compete globally.

According to him, “Information Technology has unarguably become the answer to resolving the colossal conflict of poverty in our nation.

And no amount of foreign aids and so-called transfer of technology are capable of delivering a functional and sustainable solution. Technology is the process of ensuring that development is properly organized, executed and sustained through motivated creativity and innovation.”

Uwaje suggested that constructive IT deployment and diffusion is the panacea to a significant reduction in the various levels of poverty in the country while insisting that the origin of the overt poverty enveloping the country today and prevalent in her citizens' everyday life activity, is directly rooted in the “Thinking Poverty” of governance and leadership and indeed of followership within the context of technology vision, processes and implementation standards.

 

“Thinking poverty and related chains of techno-phobia induced poverty are predominantly responsible for all the other layers of secondary poverty levels, which multiply exponentially with deep rooted consequences for nation building and competitiveness.

Also, it has contributed in no small measure in alienating the dynamics of merit-structured development, eroded our innate potentials for innovative risks.

The resultant effect is that it has helped to build the frustration chambers and the prison for reducing creative generations”, Uwaje noted.

The software expert maintains that Nigeria needs to rethink and restructure her future, within the context of Information Technology and Globalization else she may become one of the pathetic victims of the 21st century Digital colonies or Digital Slaves discovered by IT and later visited by digital disaster.

Uwaje warned thus: “To exclude Digital Disaster as an essential parameter for national planning and indeed as one of the inevitable major national catastrophes of the global IT evolution cycle is indeed a great fallacy. It will happen. Question is, who will be hurt, what will be the volume and value of damages and how long will it take to actualize Disaster Recovery?”

President of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Engr. Gbenga Adebayo believes nothing can be achieved unless the country's economy is driven to a large extent by ICT.

He notes that there is no alternative tothis as ICT plays a major role on the progress of any economy.

  “You can't talk about Vision 20:2020 without infrastructure. When you talk about infrastructure, we talk about electricity, oil and gas, good road

network, transportation by road, air and sea, security among others. When you talk about infrastructure, you talk about even the port of entry and exit of goods from this country.

“Energy today plays a key role in development, and one of the challenges we have in Nigeria is the energy supply. If we can solve this problem by 35%, Nigeria will

be productive. It will lead to rapid transformation on our industries. We cannot talk about industrialization without talking about infrastructure.”

Adebayo argues that the world today is a virtual village on account of the strength of ICT as this provides the vehicle for running commerce. He contends that all the talk about building a knowledge based economy.

     
   
 
     
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